Prediction of the COVID-19 infectivity and the sustainable impact on public health under deep learning algorithm.

The aim is to explore the development trend of COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) and predict the infectivity of 2019-nCoV (2019 Novel Coronavirus), as well as its impact on public health. First, the existing data are analyzed through data pre-processing to extract useful feature factors. Then, the LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) prediction model in the deep learning algorithm is used to predict the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, outside Hubei nationwide, and the whole country, respectively. Meanwhile, the impact of intervention time changes on the epidemic situation is compared. The results show that the prediction results are almost consistent with the actual values. Specifically, Hubei Province abolishes quarantine restrictions after the Spring Festival holiday, and the first COVID-19 peak is reached in late February, while the second COVID-19 peak has been reached in early March. Finally, the cumulative number of diagnoses reaches 85,000 cases, with an increase of 15,000 cases compared with the nationwide cases outside Hubei under the continuous implementation of prevention and control measures. Under the prediction of the proposed LSTM model, if the nationwide implementation of prevention and control interventions is postponed by 5 days, the epidemic will peak in early March, and the cumulative number of diagnoses will be about 200,000; and if the intervention measures are implemented five days earlier, the epidemic will peak in mid-February, with a cumulative number of diagnoses of approximately 40,000. Meanwhile, the proposed LSTM model predicts the RMSE values of the epidemic situation in Hubei Province, outside Hubei nationwide, and the whole country as 34.63, 75.42, and 50.27, respectively. Under model comparison analysis, the prediction error of the proposed LSTM model is small and has better applicability over similar algorithms. The results show that the LSTM model is effective and has high performance in infectious disease prediction, and the research results can provide scientific and effective references for subsequent related research.

Association between emphysema and other pulmonary computed tomography patterns in COVID-19 pneumonia.

To evaluate the chest computed tomography (CT) findings of patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on admission to hospital. And then correlate CT pulmonary infiltrates involvement with the findings of emphysema. We analyzed the different infiltrates of COVID-19 pneumonia using emphysema as the grade of pneumonia. We applied open-source assisted software (3D Slicer) to model the lungs and lesions of 66 patients with COVID-19, which were retrospectively included. we divided the 66 COVID-19 patients into the following two groups: (A) 12 patients with less than 10% emphysema in the low-attenuation area less than -950 Hounsfield units (%LAA-950), (B) 54 patients with greater than or equal to 10% emphysema in %LAA-950. Imaging findings were assessed retrospectively by two authors and then pulmonary infiltrates and emphysema volumes were measured on CT using 3D Slicer software. Differences between pulmonary infiltrates, emphysema, Collapsed, affected of patients with CT findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon test, respectively. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. The left lung (A) affected left lung 20.00/affected right lung 18.50, (B) affected left lung 13.00/affected right lung 11.50 was most frequently involved region in COVID-19. In addition, collapsed left lung, (A) collapsed left lung 4.95/collapsed right lung 4.65, (B) collapsed left lung 3.65/collapsed right lung 3.15 was also more severe than the right one. There were significant differences between the Group A and Group B in terms of the percentage of CT involvement in each lung region (p < 0.05), except for the inflated affected total lung (p = 0.152). The median percentage of collapsed left lung in the Group A was 20.00 (14.00-30.00), right lung was 18.50 (13.00-30.25) and the total was 19.00 (13.00-30.00), while the median percentage of collapsed left lung in the Group B was 13.00 (10.00-14.75), right lung was 11.50 (10.00-15.00) and the total was 12.50 (10.00-15.00). The percentage of affected left lung is an independent predictor of emphysema in COVID-19 patients. We need to focus on the left lung of the patient as it is more affected. The people with lower levels of emphysema may have more collapsed segments. The more collapsed segments may lead to more serious clinical feature.

Literature Overview of the IL-17 Inhibition from Psoriasis to COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a serious problem for drug anti-viral efficacy in combatting the cytokine storm triggered by SARS-CoV-2. From dermato-epidemiological studies conducted on psoriatic and other rheumatological patients, IL-17 inhibitors seem to attenuate or even prevent the cytokine storm and thus ICU referral. Furthermore, both in-vivo and in-vitro experiments suggest that IL-17 plays a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection progression. Due to this evidence, we decided to summarize the literature findings on IL-17 inhibitors and COVID-19, maintaining psoriasis as the referral disease to better understand the extent of drug effects on the immune system.